Will Georgia ever join the EU? And how will the path to Europe affect the country and its relations with Russia? We asked political analysts thought-provoking questions

In November, despite concerns from some Georgian citizens, the European Commission recommended granting candidate status to Georgia for EU membership. It emphasized, however, that the country must fulfill nine out of the 12 previous conditions. The final decision on the status will be announced in mid-December. Yet, when the country will actually join the EU remains uncertain and could take decades.

The Georgian government has already deemed this day historic, warmly thanked EU representatives for their support, and emphasized that it will «happily continue moving towards full membership in the European Union.» It is likely that European investments will follow the acquisition of this status.

However, will Georgia meet the EU’s requirements, how will the country’s foreign policy change, and will it ultimately succeed in joining the union? Journalist Anastasia Khatiashvili spoke with four political analysts of different perspectives about these issues exclusively for Paper Kartuli.

This is the translation of a text published in Paper Kartuli on November 10, 2023. Read the original text in Russian here.

«The recommendation to grant candidate status to Georgia is something that could not even be dreamed of two years ago. The statement by the European Commission means that Georgia can seize the window of opportunity. It is a positive step that adds optimism. However, in my opinion, it will not solve the fundamental problems between Georgia and the European Union.

The ruling party in Georgia constantly claims that the majority of recommendations have been successfully implemented. However, the EU states that only a few provisions have been fulfilled, and issues persist. When we see such divergent assessments, it means that the two sides are using completely different standards in evaluating the current situation, different value systems.

To successfully advance on the path to EU integration, Georgia must overcome this fundamental issue. Because one can argue that our standards are better than those of the EU, but the fact is that Georgia wants to join the EU, not the other way around.

Unfortunately, Georgia lags behind in the principles of institutional democracy, primarily in the independence and transparency of institutions: the judicial system, the electoral system, and so on.

Obviously, the European Commission was guided also by geopolitical considerations, but I perceive this [recommendation for candidate status] more as an advance for Georgia. Because this decision is accompanied by reservations [about the need to meet EU requirements].

Over time, the EU will increasingly articulate its expectations regarding Georgia’s adherence to the basic decisions of the EU in the field of foreign policy and security. Currently, Georgia’s accession process [to Brussels’ foreign policy] is unacceptably low, ranging from 30 to 40%. This means that the country aspires to be a member of the EU, supporting only one-third of its decisions.

It is important to remember that this is only a recommendation; the actual status will be presented by the EU’s decision [at the end of December]. And it is crucial that the government of the ruling party avoids any mistakes during this period. This could be the initiation of a law similar to the ‘foreign agents law’ or pressure on unwanted members of parliament.»

«Novemer’s decision by the European Commission essentially means that Georgia will be granted candidate status for EU membership in December. Although, if we recall how many decades Turkey has held this status and how utterly disappointed it is, we must understand that it is not of any particular importance.

Candidate status is important in domestic politics because the opposition constantly claims that the Georgian Dream does not want to join the EU, that it leans towards Russia, and so on. But the Georgian Dream has already proven otherwise.

The majority of Georgia’s population aspires to join the EU. There is nothing wrong with this—rather the opposite. But nobody should be under the illusion that this somehow brings us closer to accession.

Of course, this is a geopolitical decision. They [EU leaders] have finally realized that their policies are alienating Georgia, and they may lose us altogether. Against the backdrop of all these sanctions, Georgia is absolutely necessary as a transportation and transit corridor for Europe.»

«Candidate status is nothing more than a technical opportunity to negotiate EU membership. This means that the EU has its interests in the South Caucasus and in Georgia in particular. And Georgia continues to remain a basic country for the European Union here— the only one possible, considering geography, history, and everything else.

Yes, Europe is interested in us being candidates, interested in maintaining its influence here. But at what cost? Naturally, not at the cost of us not being, in fact, a European country, but being so only formally. A strategic decision has been made, but that does not mean that we will fulfill everything right now.

Will this change Georgia’s domestic policy? Not particularly, honestly. I think our political agenda is set. It is defined by the weakness of the opposition and a sufficiently deadlocked situation for the authorities. The authorities do not understand what to do next—they have no positive plan for the country’s development. So we move by inertia.

The EU will give us guidelines, provide technical and, I think, even financial assistance. The whole question is whether these authorities have the political will—I doubt it.»

«I don’t have serious optimistic expectations regarding the democratization of Georgia. Without addressing these issues, natural and dynamic progress towards the EU for Georgia is impossible, despite the candidate status, which still needs confirmation, and afterward, negotiations for EU membership must be opened.

One of the current problems is the foreign policy priorities and their implementation by the Georgian government. This is primarily related to the factor of Russia and its behavior in Ukraine, that is, this barbaric war. Now Georgia will have to take a stance because similar requirements were imposed by the EU on other candidate countries.

If we genuinely want closer ties with the EU, Georgia’s foreign policy must be adapted and restructured to align more with the EU’s position. The EU’s stance towards Russia is clear—sanctions. The European Commission consistently supports Ukraine financially, monetarily, and even militarily.

If we take the commitments of a candidate country seriously, we must become an integral, essential, natural part of this process. Otherwise, it will be challenging for us to approach the EU. So, in reality, this will be a test: are we moving towards European standards, criteria, traditions, and principles of cooperation, or are we struggling somewhere nearby?

This is a very complex task that requires the efforts of all forces: opposition, civil society, government organizations, and the restructuring of relevant approaches, perhaps even a change in the ruling party’s philosophy towards this issue».

«I don’t think the decision of the European Commission will somehow affect Georgia’s immediate policy, including in terms of relations with Russia. Thank God, today’s government has finally started to take pragmatic steps. No matter how much they deny in the West that no one here intended to open a second front, it was absolutely obvious. And the policy towards Russia is well-balanced and pragmatic, which is, of course, a plus.

The European Commission added tactical rather than strategic requirements [in the recommendations for Georgia]. At the same time, they simply acted unfairly and incorrectly, granting candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova, while giving Georgia just a perspective, although we were not ‘limping’ anywhere; rather, we were ahead. But we are not some students who need grades and instructions from the EU leadership.

I always repeat: Georgia needs reforms for our state, for our people, not to be accepted into the EU. Yes, we have shortcomings, especially in how our elections are conducted. This hint was also expressed by the Council of Europe. But again, all these decisions are made not because, for example, they are dissatisfied with the election results but because it is the current practice in the EU.»

«On the one hand, the European Commission’s statement can be considered positive, but on the other hand, it obliges Georgia to follow the foreign policy of the European Union. And this, of course, causes some concern as it contradicts Georgia’s sovereign development course.

It was definitely a geopolitical decision. The collective West, especially the European Union, does not want to lose its influence in Georgia, so it acted accordingly.

Will the European Union allow Georgia to engage in a dialogue with Russia or not? This question, so to speak, is up in the air, and it is difficult for us to answer it now. The coming month will probably give us an answer.

Predicting the behavior of the ruling party, Georgian Dream, based on the European Commission’s yesterday’s decision is challenging. Politics is a dynamic process, especially in the current time of complex developments in our region and globally.

It is difficult to say who and how will behave in politics, whether Georgia will have contradictions with EU directives regarding the sovereign development of the country, or whether Georgia will blindly follow these directives and do everything that the EU advises the leaders of our country.»

«I doubt that anything radically will change in the relations between Georgia and Russia. I think adjustments will be made, but nothing fundamental will change.

If earlier our authorities tried not to provoke anyone just in Moscow, now they will try not to provoke anyone in Brussels too. They have no other way out. But whether they will be able to somehow sit on two chairs? There are some countries that are very good at it.

As for the new points added by the European Commission to the other requirements concerning Georgia’s adherence to the EU’s foreign policy and security policy, it means that they will not start negotiations with us until these points are fulfilled. Well, yes, they won’t start. But ultimately, for the authorities of Georgia, this is not so critical—at least at this stage.”

«My prediction for December regarding Georgia being granted candidate status for EU membership: if nothing extraordinary happens in Georgia, it is likely that we will be granted this status.

But we all understand that this status, in general, doesn’t provide much. Actual membership of Georgia in the European Union is very distant. It may take a minimum of 25 years, and that’s in the case where the European Union remains an influential association of several European countries, doesn’t collapse, and doesn’t lose its members, similar to the case with the United Kingdom.

Much depends on whether, by that time, this issue will even be on the agenda of the European Union—whether to accept Georgia into its ranks or not. It is essential to consider the situation in world politics and in our region at that time.

Finally, the European Commission’s statement hinted that only three points have been fulfilled by Georgia. The emphasis is on the fact that the people, not the country’s current government, deserve this status. But overall, as I have already noted, this decision has a geopolitical character and stems primarily from the interests of the European Union, and only then from the interests of Georgia.»